The year 2020 has been a bit of a wild ride. Well, that’s certainly an understatement. For many people in this country, the year has been filled with nightmarish rollercoaster-like ups and downs, twists and turns, and probably some machine malfunctions, ungreased gears, and loose screws. And yet, America—being the resilient and robust economy that it is— continues forward and marches on. So while every industry, every person, every sports team, business, and school is being, in some way, affected by changing regulations and people’s sudden hypersensitivity to personal space and hygiene, the global market is also seeing its effects. According to some reports, the global economy is seeing the sharpest reversal since the Great Depression. The drop was quite dramatic in the early months of the shutdown and has seen some steady recovery since.
The Ever-Changing Markets
If you are in the business of exporting or importing goods, you know that the market, regulations, and tides of trade are always shifting and ebbing and flowing. This year was specifically turbulent because of unprecedented circumstances. As of April 2020, 6.6 million Americans were seeking unemployment benefits. This has, of course, great implications for the domestic economy and will see the ripple effects moving through the whole of society pretty soon. The pandemic has certainly upended many international trade flows, though the U.S import and export movement must continue. It has certainly made countries think much more carefully about who they are trading with and how they conduct business abroad.
China is, of course, coming under fire from many countries including the U.S and India. As of June of 2020, many Indian businesses were all boycotting Chinese products. India has already banned certain products, apps, and other items from China. In April, Japanese officials injected $2 billion to boost domestic manufacturing. Other countries, as reported by US News, like France have expressed their need to refocus their trading partners and reassess their relationship with people from China. White House economic advisor Peter Navarro told reporters that he thought, “We are dangerously over-dependent on a global supply chain.”
These movements have led many to report that nationalism and more nationalistic trade policies will emerge the victors after the smoke clears. As Forbes reports, there have already been several reports to block exports of certain items. And this, according to them, might lead governments to be a lot more selective about what they deem essential exports and imports.
Impact on Imports and Exports
The pandemic has also had significant effects on imports and exports; it has disrupted supply chains, reduced trade volumes, and limited product availability. While this causes concern for traders, it doesn’t mean all of it is dismal news. Because all markets are interconnected — from Europe to India to the U.S — a disruption to one part of the chain will often have some effects on the other.
Some analysts are predicting that returning to normal will be a difficult fight. Many believe that the outbreak has permanently altered the global flow of goods and services. The pre-coronavirus norms seemed to have open free-flowing trade across global markets, as globalization seemed to be the 21st century way of trading. The political popularity of globalization has suffered quite a bit and many countries are looking for ways to remain a little more conservative on their trade, or, at the very least, have much more discretion on who they trade with.
And so while pre-corona trade patterns may not return, international trade, imports, and exports will continue to be a large part of the U.S economy as we continue trading with our allies and close trading partners. There is no question that the pandemic has brought about a change in the international markets, but exactly what kind of change is yet to be seen. Other industries like pharmaceuticals might see their changes as well, as countries begin to kickstart the production of some of these goods in their own borders. In the U.S, according to Market Watch, imports fell 6.2% but U.S exports fell even deeper with 9.6%.
The U.S trade deficit also widened by almost 12% in March as international flights were not allowed to fly, which froze the global tourism. At the same time, the exchange of goods was also affected. The U.S exported fewer cars, aircraft parts, and barrels of petroleum.
As far as the big picture is visible right now, some segments of international commerce are faring better than others. For example, trade in medical supplies and food, but the global petroleum market has been hard hit. The movement of electronic goods like iPhones has also decreased dramatically. And while the recovery of the global economy might take some time, there will not be a shortage of need for international trade, especially in certain industries. There has been some decline in freight and cargo shipments for a variety of reasons including the fact that many companies have had to shut their doors and many ports and transportation workers were either sick or unable to return to work.
In these uncertain times, you need to have a brokerage you can trust. Here at Cordova Brokerage, we are entrenched in the movements of the markets and global trade in order to provide our clients with the latest information and pertinent changes. If you are importing or exporting goods, things might seem a little chaotic. Find a brokerage you can trust to walk you through the ever-changing markets, regulations, and compliance restrictions.